%PDF-1.4
%
4 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.A) >>
endobj
7 0 obj
(Identification: Proof of Theorem 1)
endobj
8 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.B) >>
endobj
11 0 obj
(MAP-EM Estimator)
endobj
12 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.C) >>
endobj
15 0 obj
(Standard Errors)
endobj
16 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.D) >>
endobj
19 0 obj
(Estimation of Restricted Model)
endobj
20 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.E) >>
endobj
23 0 obj
(Expected Threshold and its Variance)
endobj
24 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.F) >>
endobj
27 0 obj
(First and Second Moments of Truncated Normal)
endobj
28 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.G) >>
endobj
31 0 obj
(Derivative Calculations for Standard Errors)
endobj
32 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.H) >>
endobj
35 0 obj
(Auxiliary Tests)
endobj
36 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (subsection.H.1) >>
endobj
39 0 obj
(Fit)
endobj
40 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (subsection.H.2) >>
endobj
43 0 obj
(MAP-EM vs Restricted Zero-Threshold Model)
endobj
44 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (subsection.H.3) >>
endobj
47 0 obj
(Electoral System Change)
endobj
48 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (subsection.H.4) >>
endobj
51 0 obj
(Bayesian Tests)
endobj
52 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.I) >>
endobj
55 0 obj
(Full Results)
endobj
56 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.J) >>
endobj
59 0 obj
(Tests of Change in Electoral Systems)
endobj
60 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.K) >>
endobj
63 0 obj
(Sensitivity to MAP-EM priors \046 Comparison with EM)
endobj
64 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.L) >>
endobj
67 0 obj
(Alternative cutoff rules for electoral system determination)
endobj
68 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.M) >>
endobj
71 0 obj
(Electoral Results and Institutions Data Codebook)
endobj
72 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (subsection.M.1) >>
endobj
75 0 obj
(Electoral Data)
endobj
76 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (subsection.M.2) >>
endobj
79 0 obj
(Primary Institutional Variables)
endobj
80 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.M.2.1) >>
endobj
83 0 obj
(First tier variables)
endobj
84 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.M.2.2) >>
endobj
87 0 obj
(Tier k=2,3,4)
endobj
88 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.N) >>
endobj
91 0 obj
(Electoral Results Sources)
endobj
92 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (subsection.N.1) >>
endobj
95 0 obj
(Several Countries)
endobj
96 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (subsection.N.2) >>
endobj
99 0 obj
(Country-specific)
endobj
100 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D (appendix.O) >>
endobj
103 0 obj
(Data Issues \205 Country Notes)
endobj
104 0 obj
<< /S /GoTo /D [105 0 R /Fit] >>
endobj
107 0 obj
<<
/Length 568
/Filter /FlateDecode
>>
stream
xڅSr0W(WŃޖ9PsJr0Uk-3y 'HiuOkȻZx"#4U`$F %UKz,Lu)wiܸ ];q7]CÐ:)6NP%e$O}{ޥou4ÔVӫ0[xG4i W )@(Er@fY|"Qu\ƏKEJ(03D`/a),AwQ@p
t9$@ytL8JKoG)Lj}1dB`g iKFZ?!diϹjKE#g/
%s(B/kPJ.|*r-\^ƣTކ6>
endobj
108 0 obj
<<
/D [105 0 R /XYZ 71 721 null]
>>
endobj
109 0 obj
<<
/D [105 0 R /XYZ 72 720 null]
>>
endobj
106 0 obj
<<
/ColorSpace 3 0 R /Pattern 2 0 R /ExtGState 1 0 R
/Font << /F17 110 0 R /F18 111 0 R /F14 112 0 R /F13 113 0 R /F8 114 0 R >>
/ProcSet [ /PDF /Text ]
>>
endobj
121 0 obj
<<
/Length 2655
/Filter /FlateDecode
>>
stream
xZs6~_QofK]=ׇE[I+I.@QJ\lA$X.vI'4抶o^&apdr}j *^$үgc\\`iSD7er)J,[|}^/j[g?_{`=l?7W;7;^e6aJqF$i6?,OMzlt,Yꭤ}Y2u(&lbHn(Yhj?Ybhެh'۩XY&J|ےªdoNTNݯ#Zb
tG)4h^FmޭzkLhq;Y_q9oT7Y}|e˦|k]jJ}52K]LZv2ӯ IL},!tAKL얅Cmw_VHȜ~QF"Coxvc"s)-&R-RL:kf[%;0jLܩNV,FT)EYVLY6v8\O[`,b,Nub_]JQVĪ.cbv72
рa!U[0Yj8%@rˍtӍy BtYfQb-JG毸MD5rM8ܯ"/8&$ hmSm^@!T$+XYx`})UVĘ
xk$Uթ].μ$܆iXR@P0П1l I'*;YGX 9%M,%S~*'s
bun#vׇذb\Ј2E@Gq}kKX-8d<4Yo`n u"9Uտ<lEaI/M>mp1d>^qF͎eO>ыrc/⒡ual EWt=UXp
RuHgep=C=XӖ{j8R:\/],Ho\%X
_+~2=|1o/q[ך嶨j_I Up|d'`"PhgF+grZ!'qY}Z)YC*_t6jރZX
ESl(wP<ұ}M Mk η8P+z
.e˅yJ{B<
w3S_r9\yea2uޟg@c:69`GWRrOGfcCO8k(hq QY7ǧ/݉Qplk?L3ot]nb4!ar@ƚaV.]7hODYL姹jl>#a)wx>Q:(SDQbrg&F|M0*\%.1rSz?īkǙegkJ;i+=晱x8!u8$9Cc\c]VSfH"=fKT*R:na/hT5JfQmOV^h,vyW) WX!6q
p~AP,/;e*X|ԑC/
q!G
J]9lu݁ɘ=f_o8Xͦy2?*}Gb
.^ 4@ZP5[Ԛ0^C2S\UeD.UZ)^Ya3D3@kc
SY`&uxJ\{?HJ?38?}'<;O^ t`ccR"?Iqr@VOI x\#-1xiIB@PQju/F
ZM
4<!T"('KD 8?>b;e/?շ |ZO.RF;X w^JerV.8d'h9 C~&xqF;1kJ$^}0AZEo1
endstream
endobj
120 0 obj
<<
/Type /Page
/Contents 121 0 R
/Resources 119 0 R
/MediaBox [0 0 612 792]
/Parent 115 0 R
/Annots [ 116 0 R 117 0 R 118 0 R ]
>>
endobj
116 0 obj
<<
/Type /Annot
/Subtype /Link
/Border[0 0 0]/H/I/C[1 0 0]
/Rect [388.632 707.049 400.309 720.996]
/A << /S /GoTo /D (Theorem.1) >>
>>
endobj
117 0 obj
<<
/Type /Annot
/Subtype /Link
/Border[0 0 0]/H/I/C[1 0 0]
/Rect [314.218 668.313 329.719 682.261]
/A << /S /GoTo /D (AMS.4) >>
>>
endobj
118 0 obj
<<
/Type /Annot
/Subtype /Link
/Border[0 0 0]/H/I/C[1 0 0]
/Rect [148.058 350.092 163.558 364.039]
/A << /S /GoTo /D (AMS.4) >>
>>
endobj
5 0 obj
<<
/D [120 0 R /XYZ 72 720 null]
>>
endobj
119 0 obj
<<
/ColorSpace 3 0 R /Pattern 2 0 R /ExtGState 1 0 R
/Font << /F37 122 0 R /F18 111 0 R /F40 123 0 R /F38 124 0 R /F41 125 0 R /F14 112 0 R /F39 126 0 R /F52 127 0 R /F46 128 0 R /F47 129 0 R /F42 130 0 R >>
/ProcSet [ /PDF /Text ]
>>
endobj
135 0 obj
<<
/Length 2145
/Filter /FlateDecode
>>
stream
x[Ks6W`ovm wRs٪VrH%5!A3cl+ckf*~?EEYTƞbr~ 7&D?g_~#=c]^3G vy~>bȞ_;EHqw_~mm%ǤEFR2ǃ2
za3˅RJJf lR\ff8[G-AɥtLs$e-[s*.-A&Jkxl&(s˳wg&k2ޝ`WwLpƙ[p
Rg\Ѐz\
,RZ@ [Zqj>,%8D-ч?J~'i%&ב !6+;wJ{=Lk|,2]LtrAgSWDI!ǘ")g2:dP8TE+n0=A`spf4Dxntw(Bi`zФP
'`ȍ-ɔ||fL֍CT6hM#IJ]xP6͈k[o:YL!Y+{%KzE5cyp xU3/K24M#r/Oxp&ˇMl_c.Sq$YZZ\i
28Y@Jѯ"ͽC!RAu M+Xeф~ J =˺(Ԡiq*I9Xb:6Ajbwf,{%džct $W:DAw,&/y+XYJ҉]eubuPa 9<>JpWʘ.{sDtLVz1ehvD"O)%ݶ\a,*&AOۍہZɍЧJj-JUlTemrGA;T9h`GьnΑ1<#=ݺOqܶB'*v
J4|OMiTU-ZȀF*|\arm+ZǓ2bĊ|YOJ*PT(*J犲2K90Y:_T^l݉Δ
XT_U]e9Ykο]RU|#^0 jŮo(敽CژJg*YWN674/e%"+
# Tp-ZyGէ|uQdU}]2}[^M-a~X/VB¸TVg@\-7?-ަmYsC~/UoX>WZ+}/;|^.1R8UEodcpnb/{j|V3OǦm]v%-۷k:٥>fVB3$+=xIn[UǨcJ@74T9[~~<ڹѹ]wUVe9(ҟ˵Տ<ݦu]N@8mLnOz&}ȫ'HQ<W:f0ku/u#kI%=#iC
6aG;6e0 *5Oqmyg͓Јc~vL|F=F({蝉.
endstream
endobj
134 0 obj
<<
/Type /Page
/Contents 135 0 R
/Resources 133 0 R
/MediaBox [0 0 612 792]
/Parent 115 0 R
>>
endobj
136 0 obj
<<
/D [134 0 R /XYZ 71 721 null]
>>
endobj
133 0 obj
<<
/ColorSpace 3 0 R /Pattern 2 0 R /ExtGState 1 0 R
/Font << /F18 111 0 R /F46 128 0 R /F41 125 0 R /F39 126 0 R /F42 130 0 R /F44 137 0 R /F40 123 0 R /F38 124 0 R /F14 112 0 R /F52 127 0 R /F47 129 0 R /F48 138 0 R >>
/ProcSet [ /PDF /Text ]
>>
endobj
143 0 obj
<<
/Length 1968
/Filter /FlateDecode
>>
stream
xZ[oF~ϯ[sH5HT@:gqt)gf͌wBy93ggpS2%g'a.mdPBE~ӋxP0%ESOf6<dYR\yDr\5Wyٔz:"olQ?ʫs/Pia;NڛԒGǖH(gEJ@FSKA21 H橚(Y@5J2Jg1N,H/T=@r"CXVIRQ3jxrzcڮLp9@R
ҊdE@y'~ij]fiQ],Sb7
<Ĉ7t0LR
eev6r9TS)M̩lV?] AW[zG5=mSPVl>ūg ]u g2m@|R-jРP'~s}`TiIRakGz`%rRxj91e^jZAYMu
j>xoaL8gEPO78?t*MԳgzTXiVWSqd?WLU:P8a4EK
%<%pt'^!LNRmBFV'v^ckmmJw t.1`
U$
,vjE# \xΝJ%\6B+_H~O~'T`eG2 %Vb~cj:]#ERz
SAhܬW63 Rvn9p7փt+&0gXp77HI`?. d
וs3 '[gFFn"HP< )a;[ݳNr$8
?*/#oIy*,(P[fLU{(+~#dMÄpUV>𝐌d|'$" bjTikVQ)fYU4z$"\
YmFtWp@STm[(%%mf[z3ͬfi*{{34~>Ჩzu8" {ݖM}4yFje4ٱ`YyVۨfT)o7 QymwTL uvŘbYŘOBMu/fI'*H"9y_m~; =[lo{}$4AtƾW懤4)Stok0ɩۚw[ݑII%¿4Oc{6]H`.dƎ{#Cɸ&_mA2*)eprg)# A1G,_^((ªD -Eں8vibk|XВi14ƒpơo5՝D{cIȦk@:`fwwTx{sa5D[;~j Ur{;쁻*bWz43PaWgAUTM{gԮ?/ǕkEԶ9l^=LP!.pPjsbmԠLxN甾;tKW~I\`Ǒ県 .b %DHfgm K'vj_vzLHQД^L aRn@?pMO! )]=
sWֻ-a #6S3ĕ8(Q\Y'<^%'`hәiQו+Fzd}Pޓ=&Y8aA%6ca!W<;MɁi&j˥x<Awp7g `?~^
endstream
endobj
142 0 obj
<<
/Type /Page
/Contents 143 0 R
/Resources 141 0 R
/MediaBox [0 0 612 792]
/Parent 115 0 R
/Annots [ 139 0 R 140 0 R ]
>>
endobj
139 0 obj
<<
/Type /Annot
/Subtype /Link
/Border[0 0 0]/H/I/C[1 0 0]
/Rect [298.15 644.405 305.996 658.353]
/A << /S /GoTo /D (equation.2.8) >>
>>
endobj
140 0 obj
<<
/Type /Annot
/Subtype /Link
/Border[0 0 0]/H/I/C[1 0 0]
/Rect [291.962 401.89 299.807 415.837]
/A << /S /GoTo /D (equation.2.7) >>
>>
endobj
144 0 obj
<<
/D [142 0 R /XYZ 71 721 null]
>>
endobj
9 0 obj
<<
/D [142 0 R /XYZ 72 720 null]
>>
endobj
145 0 obj
<<
/D [142 0 R /XYZ 72 617.176 null]
>>
endobj
147 0 obj
<<
/D [142 0 R /XYZ 72 523.79 null]
>>
endobj
141 0 obj
<<
/ColorSpace 3 0 R /Pattern 2 0 R /ExtGState 1 0 R
/Font << /F37 122 0 R /F18 111 0 R /F40 123 0 R /F14 112 0 R /F41 125 0 R /F38 124 0 R /F44 137 0 R /F52 127 0 R /F45 146 0 R /F42 130 0 R /F46 128 0 R >>
/ProcSet [ /PDF /Text ]
>>
endobj
153 0 obj
<<
/Length 2690
/Filter /FlateDecode
>>
stream
x\mo_~o@[Z|(P7n|4.wHJ(S+O~pg#CAOh Z0FP/4J+©*ήӋLs%J#~A$AA tZ23Sf7HMX\Q%45$ D4M
,R%#0p0hj.v[*XĢbc8)7MKmB,)Q0A,bKIR?R$ʢJAV*9+ԻY-@nagVa
.)6zK$X\{(F0KbRN,I[^f:#3`PԾJbɹ&/Z:~ېp24_S)KΦTjXT;:<ݿ>eZ4h"fqbܞml qg'=qJõ !"t\.O/hq?#)>ŷ7O~NAZ2NNNK4Sd0%ȇk19a\<6)vJ \GbkKiC&ZQT;F_Bf*?c)V@5>(\fP2JsHnu$R
iw(VHAyn>EbPzma)Ka K*R>tQa4& @ˮ5DDD`E/4Y#